Человек и природа в 21 веке доклад: Attention Required! | Cloudflare

Человек и природа в XXI веке. Напишите сочинение срочно пож А. Н. Толстой великий писатель второй половины 19 века. Самым ярким его произведением в течение его творчества стал роман «Война и мир», который несет в себе философский характер, так как его герои размышляют о смысле жизни, о чувствах, и о других вопросах, волнующих их сердца. И даже в самом названии романа скрыт смысл гуманности. «Война и мир» — это как бы противостояние двух сил. В произведении показаны две стороны человеческой жизни, с одной стороны — это война, а с другой — мир.
Война 1812 года — это страшное испытание, выпавшее на долю русского народа. Это кровопролитное, ужасное событие в истории человечества. Тысячи людей, в том числе и дворяне, такие, как Пьер, Андрей, Николай и другие, встали на защиту родного отечества. На каждом шагу их приследовала опасность, они готовы были жертвовать своей жизнью, ради России. Хотя другие не были обеспокоены судьбой Родины, они больше думали о делах, по их мнению, поважнее, чем спасение страны от врага.
А. Н. Толстой говорил: «…война — противное человеческому разуму и всей человеческой природе событие», но война 1812 года — это «страшная необходимость». Но автор показывает читателю не только войну, в прямом смысле этого слова, но и бури, грозы, настигающие человека. Война в человеческой душе переворачивает все в жизни, она страшна так же, как и сражение на поле брани. И эти колебания происходят в судьбах главных героев романа: Андрея, Пьера, Наташи и других.
Переживание, разочарование в любви, путь душевных исканий, — все это тревожило неспокойное существование князя Андрея. С каждым новым страданием он становился мудрее и сильнее. Встретив, по его мнению, настоящую любовь, счастье его снова настигает неудача, глубокое разочарование. Мне кажется, что истинное успокоение Андрей обрел на Бородинском поле, где был смертельно ранен. Наверное, именно в тот момент, князь почувствовал, что его жизнь прожита не зря.
Безусловно, гуманизм названия заложен в слове «мир». В романе мир — это прежде всего стремление к согласию между народом, между русскими и французами, но, к сожалению, его можно было добиться только с помощью насилия, то есть войны.

Что в нашем понимании война? Это прежде всего смерть, кровь, боль, потеря близких людей и не понятная агрессия со стороны неизвестных ранее людей. Может ли она быть гуманной? Я считаю что нет! Никакое убийство нельзя оправдать! Сейчас в нашем современном мире происходит множество вооружённых конфликтов. И средства массовой информации всегда оправдывают агрессора. Сводки новостей гласят что погибло столько-то военных и какое то количество мирных жителей. В наше время считается, что если жертв среди мирного населения нет. Значит одна из сторон гуманна. Но редко кто учитывает, что человек как правило берёт в руки оружие чтобы защитить себя, свою землю, свои идеалы! Неоднократно во внутренние конфликты вмешивается миссия ООН. Они называют себя миротворцами и считают что поступают гуманно. Этого не может быть если они встают на чью то сторону. Получается что одним можно убивать под защитой мировой общественности, а другим нельзя! Я считаю что война гуманной не может быть не в каком понимании. Потому что любой вооруженный конфликт это насилие над чужими интересами и ценностями.

 

90000 Top Ten Environmental Concerns of the 21st Century 90001 90002 What are the top ten environmental problems facing the world today? 90003 90002 A recent scientific paper published in Nature attempted to answer this question, with a twist. The Earth has spent roughly the last 12,000 years in a period of unusual climate stability known as the Holocene era. To put this era in perspective, all major human civilizations have existed since the beginning of the Holocene. In fact, humans have only practiced agriculture for roughly the last 10,000 years.This all-important development, which allowed civilizations from the ancient Sumerians to our own to thrive, was made possible by the stable climate of the Holocene 90003 90002 Unfortunately, this stable, pleasant period is currently coming to an end, and there is strong reason to believe that this is 90007 not 90008 the result of a change in the natural cycles of the Earth, but rather that the change is caused by human activity. 90003 90002 The authors of Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity, attempted to identify the most serious environmental threats the human race currently faces, and identify the potential «tipping points» beyond which the pleasant Holocene era would disappear and the Earth’s natural resources would be seriously depleted.90011 90003 90002 The ten most serious environmental problems they identified were: 90011 90003 90016 10. The Stratospheric Ozone Layer 90017 90002 The ozone layer filters out the most harmful wavelengths of UVB ultraviolet radiation from the sun before it reaches the earth’s surface. A depleted ozone layer would mean increased rates of skin cancer for humans, as well as damage to plants and ecosystems. Ozone depletion received a lot of attention in the 1970s and 80’s when scientists discovered a giant and growing «hole» in the ozone layer above Antarctica.90003 90002 Fortunately, the scientists were able to convince the world community to act quickly to limit the production of ozone depleting substances such as CFCs and halons and the problem of ozone depletion today seems to be on the path to successful resolution, though due to the long lifetime of ozone depleting compounds the Antarctic ozone «hole» is not expected to recover completely until 2050 and the overall levels of ozone in the atmosphere will recover to pre-1980 levels only about 2060-2075.90003 90002 The goal for the future will be to maintain the progress we have already made on this issue. 90011 90003 90016 9. Land Use Changes 90017 90002 The authors of Planetary Boundaries chose Land Use Changes as one of their top environmental concerns, which I felt was a slightly redundant choice, because changes in land use, for the most part, have the same negative effects as several of their other choices. For example, loss of wildlife habitat leads to loss of biodiversity. Depending on what the habitat is replaced with, the change can also lead to air or water pollution from factories and farm fields, depleted groundwater reserves due to impervious surfaces such as city roads, and carbon emissions from almost any human activity you could name.90003 90002 Land Use Changes are also particularly difficult to define a «tipping point» for because their effects vary so significantly, so that in fact the exact environmental impact of one land use change is different from the impact of every other land use change ever made . 90011 90003 90002 I feel a less redundant and easier to measure choice might have been soil depletion due to erosion, desertification, and unsound agricultural practices, among other factors. 90011 90003 90016 8. Atmospheric Aerosol Pollution 90017 90002 Atmospheric aerosols can be either natural or man-made.Unlike greenhouse gases, most aerosols have a net cooling effect on the climate because they reflect sunlight back into space, instead of allowing it to warm the Earth. The famous Year Without a Summer in 1816 was the result of large amounts of natural aerosols being thrown into the atmosphere by the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora. 90003 90002 Unfortunately, excessive aerosols are nevertheless undesirable because of their damaging effects on human and animal health, among other things. Smog and other forms of air pollution contribute to chronic respiratory illnesses and even deaths for millions of people every year.In fact the World Health Organization estimates that 2.4 million people every year die as a direct result of aerosols and other forms of air pollution. This problem is most severe in industrialized areas and areas that use «slash-and-burn» agriculture methods or wood fires for cooking. 90011 90003 90016 7. Chemical Pollution 90017 90002 Pollution of air, water, and soil by long-lasting chemical compounds is another tipping point that is hard to quantify, in part because many of the chemicals in question simply have not been around long enough for their long -term effects to be clear.These include many compounds suspected of being endocrine disruptors, chemicals that interfere with the natural balance of hormones in the body. Some of these endocrine disrupting chemicals are blamed for a sudden rise in hermaphroditism among aquatic creatures such as fish and frogs. Others are believed to contribute to the rise in breast cancer, prostate cancer, and other hormone-related cancers in humans. 90003 90002 Other pollutants, such as some heavy metals, are already known to be both harmful and persistent.90011 90003 90016 6. Ocean Acidification 90017 90002 Ocean acidification is a lesser known side effect of excessive CO2 production. About 1/4 of the CO2 produced by human activities every year is dissolved in the oceans, where it reacts to form various compounds, including carbonic acid, that increase the acidity of seawater. Over the last 250 years, surface acidity of the ocean has increased by an estimated 30%. The acidity is expected to increase by 150% by 2100. 90003 90002 The effects of this change are still poorly understood.However, what is known is that increased acidity decreases the amount of carbonate in seawater, an important component of shells for many shellfish and plankton, and skeletons for coral. The effect of more acidic seawater is similar to that of the disease osteoporosis on human bones — the shells and skeletons gradually become softer and weaker. Eventually, the shells and skeletons dissolve completely. Since shellfish and plankton provide food for many other creatures and coral reefs offer one of the richest and most biodiverse ocean habitats, this could result in a disastrous domino effect for ocean ecosystems, leading to the collapse of many fisheries and eventual extinction of thousands of species .90011 90003 90016 5. The Water Cycle 90017 90002 Many experts believe that water depletion will be one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. Currently, one third of humans have inadequate access to clean, fresh water. By 2025, the number is expected to reach one half to two thirds of the human population, thanks to a combination of many factors, including water pollution, climate change, and water depletion from unsustainable water uses. 90003 90002 Inadequate water resources have led to violent conflict throughout human history, but never on the scale that is likely to affect the 21st century.In addition to human suffering and armed conflicts, unsustainable water use also affects the environment as a whole. For example, irrigation of crops can lead to salinization of soil, ultimately leading to desertification and loss of habitat and biodiversity. Another concern is rising ocean levels. Recent studies have linked groundwater depletion around the world to rising sea levels. Rising sea levels already threaten many island nations and low-lying coastal regions. 90011 90003 90016 4 and 3.The Phosphorus and Nitrogen Cycles 90017 90002 Although the effect of human activities on the carbon cycle is better known, the effect of human activities on the nitrogen cycle has been even more dramatic. 90003 90002 The human race’s use (and abuse) of the nitrogen cycle has been one of the most beneficial for our own species for many years. Every year, humans convert 120 million tons of nitrogen from the atmosphere into reactive forms such as nitrates, mainly in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizer for crops.The widespread introduction of nitrogen fertilizers to the world’s farmers was one of the driving forces of the remarkable Green Revolution of the 20th century, which increased crop yields in most regions of the globe by up to ten times. 90003 90002 However, human activities now remove more nitrogen from the atmosphere than all natural processes combined, and much of this nitrogen ends up as a pollutant. A particularly serious problem is nitrate pollution from agricultural runoff in ground and surface water supplies, which can not only poison humans and other living creatures drinking polluted waters, it can also significantly change freshwater and marine ecosystems.The Gulf of Mexico «Dead Zone» is caused by nitrate and phosphate pollution, primarily from agricultural runoff in the American Midwest. The fertilizers cause massive algae blooms, which consume all the oxygen in the water, leaving it too low in oxygen for anything to survive. The size of the Dead Zone varies from year to year, but it generally covers about 6000-7000 square miles and has seriously impacted fisheries in the area, as well as the health of the local ecosystem. Other Dead Zones exist in the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, Chesapeake Bay, and some parts of the Pacific Ocean, as well as freshwater lakes and rivers around the world.90003 90002 Phosphate pollution contributes to the problem as well, though to a far lesser degree. Unlike nitrogen, which is extracted from the air, phosphorus is mined. 90011 90003 90002 The authors of the Planetary Boundaries report believe that the nitrogen cycle has already long passed its tipping point and the the human race should strive to reduce its consumption of atmospheric nitrogen to 35 million tons per year to return to sustainable levels. 90003 90002 One way to reduce nitrogen consumption is to increase use of nitrogen-fixing cover crops such as clovers and other legumes, and use of compost and animal manures as fertilizer.90011 90003 90016 2. Loss of Biodiversity 90017 90002 Of the three «tipping points» the authors of Planetary Boundaries believe the human race has already passed, the loss of biodiversity is the most dramatic. The Earth is currently in the midst of the greatest mass extinction since the death of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. As many as half of all plant and animal species that exist today could be extinct by 2100, a rate that is an estimated 1000 times the natural rate of 0.1-1.0 species per million species per year.90003 90002 This catastrophic loss of biodiversity is already likely to affect the development of life on earth for millions of years to come. Following the largest mass extinction in Earth’s history — the Permian-Triassic extinction event that occurred about 251 million years ago — it took 50 million years for land-dwelling species to regain their previous diversity, and more than 100 million years for ocean biodiversity to recover . 90003 90002 The cause or causes of the Permian-Triassic extinction are still unknown, but the cause of the current mass extinction sadly is not.The majority of modern extinctions are directly or indirectly caused by human activity. Habitat destruction, overhunting / overharvesting, competition from invasive alien species, and climate change are a few of the most common causes of extinction. 90003 90002 In addition to an almost unimaginably impoverished world, mass extinction also threatens to lead to the collapse, domino-style, of entire ecosystems, ecosystems that the human race depends on for its own survival. So-called «ecosystem services» are believed to save human societies trillions of dollars every year by performing functions such as the following: 90003 90089 90090 purification of air and water 90091 90090 crop pollination 90091 90090 production of seafood, game, and other wild foods 90091 90090 pest control 90091 90090 waste decomposition 90091 90090 soil creation 90091 90090 drought and flood mitigation 90011 90091 90090 and more 90091 90107 90002 Healthy ecosystems perform ecosystem services more effectively than stressed or destroyed ecosystems.90011 90003 90016 1. Climate Change 90017 90002 The most controversial of the planetary tipping points named by the Planetary Boundaries Report is climate change. Climatology is a complex science, and there are some who believe that the changes of the past few decades are nothing but natural variations. The overwhelming majority of climate scientists, however, believe that human activities are currently affecting the climate and, like many other scientists, the Planetary Boundaries team believes that the tipping point has already been passed.90003 90002 In order to maintain the stable Holocene climate humans have enjoyed for the last 12,000 years of our existence, a majority of scientists now believe that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels must remain below 350 parts per million (ppm). (This level is still 75 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels of 275 ppm.) Beyond 350 ppm, we begin to risk catastrophic and effectively irreversible changes, such as the disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet, which is already melting at a rate of 48 cubic miles (200 cubic kilometers) per year.Currently, the atmospheric carbon dioxide level is 390 ppm and climbing by nearly 2 ppm every year. 90003 90002 Reducing atmospheric carbon levels is likely to be one of the most difficult challenges in a century of difficult challenges. It will require a worldwide improvement in energy efficiency and conservation, a massive push to more carbon neutral forms of energy generation, and a revolution in land use practices. 90003 90002 The good news is that climate change is intimately connected with each of the other environmental problems outlined in this article, so by solving climate change we can help to solve other environmental problems, and by solving other environmental problems, we can likewise help reduce the problem of climate change.Pick an issue, study it, and set about creating the change you want to see in the world. 90011 90003 .90000 9 Inventions from the 21st Century That Are Still Shaping Our World Today 90001 90002 The 21st century has been an exciting time for those of us who dabble or are simply interested in the realms of technology. If you were born in any of the previous decades, you have had the opportunity to bear witness to some of the most important innovations and advancements in human history. 90003 90002 90005 RELATED: 35 INVENTIONS THAT CHANGED THE WORLD 90006 90003 90002 The start of the 21st century was met with fear and a lot of unknowns.You probably remember Y2K. Thankfully the world did not end at the turn of the century, but the 19 years following would go on to be crucial. What is even more interesting about this time period is the fact that the inventions from previous decades finally took off in the 21st century. 90003 90002 Over the months, we have explored crucial inventions from each decade that would eventually go on to change the world and our lives. 90003 90002 As you probably guessed, today we are going to continue that tradition and take a brief look at some of the inventions from the 21st century.What makes this time period so different and equally exciting is that there are a good amount of inventions from this time period that are controversial, compared to previous time periods in human history. Yet, there is a good chance you can not live without some of these inventions on this list. 90003 90014 1. Social Media 90015 90016 Source: 90017 alexsl / iStock 90018 90002 Ok, let’s start with the more obvious and controversial one, social media. You might have grown tired of seeing your friends ‘countless posts or the constant threats to your own privacy but at one point social media held a truly exciting promise, to connect people across the world.Tools like Friendster and MySpace entered the scene in 2002 and 2003 respectively, opening the doors for the eventual giant Facebook. 90003 90002 Social media is everywhere. There is a good chance that you read this post from our social media page. Social media does connect people and businesses across continents, is a hub for both great and useless information, and has even been a stage for major political movements. 90003 90002 Just to put everything into scale, there are currently 90005 7.5 billion 90006 people on this planet and 90005 2.89 billion 90006 of them can be found on some sort of social media platform. Social media is going to be around for a while. 90003 90014 2. Multi-use rockets 90015 90002 90032 90033 90003 90002 Hate him or love him, Elon Musk has made some tremendous contributions to our planet. His company SpaceX has gone on to develop rockets that can be recovered and reused for other launches. It was in 2017 when SpaceX became the first to use one of these rockets again for another mission.90003 90014 3. The Capsule Endoscopy 90015 90039 Source: 90017 CHUYN / iStock 90018 90002 All thanks to massive advancements in light-emitting electrodes, image sensors, and optical design in the 90s, the capsule endoscopy was able to be created. First used in 2001, the technology uses a tiny wireless camera the size of a common pill. This allows doctors to explore and examine the human body, specifically the digestive system, to identify any potential internal bleeding, inflammation, or cancerous tumors.90003 90014 4. Blockchain Technology 90015 90002 90047 90033 90003 90002 Now the idea of ​​a blockchain did not first appear in 2008. In fact, Stuart Haber and W. Scott Stornetta first envisioned the idea in 1991. However, it was not until the emergence of Bitcoin in 2008 when blockchain technology truly became relevant. People around the world are excited about blockchain as it has the potential to change industries outside of the cryptocurrency world. 90003 90002 From car-sharing to cloud sharing, blockchain technology offers greater transparency increased efficiency and speed, improved traceability, and enhanced security just to name a few benefits.90003 90014 5. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies 90015 90002 Remember last year when you could not go one day without seeing or hearing about cryptocurrencies? Bitcoin’s unprecedented rise in value force the world to pay attention to these decentralized tools. There were previous attempts to create cryptocurrencies in the late 90s, but it was the mysterious Mr. Nakamoto and his creation of Bitcoin that would go on to become a staple of culture. 90003 90002 Cryptocurrencies are already changing the way we conduct financial transactions offering a transparent, secure, and decentralized way to conduct business.90003 90014 6. Mobile Operating Systems 90015 90062 Source: 90017 hocus-focus / iStock 90018 90002 Imagine where you would be without that smooth and easy to use operating systems found on your phone. Whether you love Android or Apple’s iOS, operating systems change your mobile device’s interface for the better, opening the doors to better user experiences and greater technological advances. 90003 90014 7. 3D Printing 90015 90002 90070 90033 90003 90002 One of our personal favorites, 3D printing has a lot of hype around it because of its potential to disrupt everything from the food industry to the aerospace industry.In fact, there are a lot of examples of how that has already begun. Now, 3D printing is not completely new to the 21st century. 90003 90002 In fact, the application of the layering method you see on today’s 3D printers can be traced back to the 19th century and 3D printing officially began in 1980. Yet, cheaper manufacturing methods and open-source software have contributed to a revolution in 3D printing . If you wanted to 3D print something back in the day it was going to set you back thousands of dollars.Now you can buy a 3D printer at home for your desktop. 90003 90014 8. Gene Editing / CRISPR 90015 90002 90002 90081 90033 90003 90003 90002 The fascinating thing about gene editing is that it has played a big role in various aspects of science fiction before coming into fruition. Back in 2012 researchers from the University of California, Berkeley and a separate team from Harvard, as well as the Broad Institute, independently discovered the power of the bacterial immune system known as clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats or CRISPR.90003 90002 CRISPR can be used as a powerful gene-editing tool to make drastic changes to an organisms ‘DNA. CRISPR could eventually be used to eradicate major diseases and even be used to edit humans for reproductive purposes, opening the doors to many ethical questions. 90003 90014 9. The Internet of Things 90015 90091 Source: 90017 4x-image / iStock 90018 90002 This is probably another buzzword that you hear thrown around a lot. Originally conceived towards the end of 1999 by Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy, we would go on to see the real application of IoT in our consumer devices and appliances in the 21s century.Yet, the IoT has the potential to unlock the «fourth industrial revolution» driving innovation in places like artificial intelligence and robotics. 90003 .90000 Science, Policy and Environment in the 21st Century 90001 90002 90003 90004 Richard E. Benedick 90005 90004 This article is adapted from an address to the American Physical Society in April 2001, and draws from «The Indispensable Element in the Montreal Ozone Protocol,» Columbia University Earth Institute, Earth Matters, Fall 1999. 90005 90008 Humanity in the twenty-first century faces a new generation of environmental challenges. These differ significantly from past environmental problems that were familiar local accompaniments to the industrialization process.In the mid-1970s, the first truly global threat to the planet depletion of the stratospheric protective ozone layer was theorized, derided, hotly debated, and ultimately proven true, later earning for its discoverers the Nobel Prize. In the years following, scientists across a broad range of disciplines began to sound alarms about other portentous environmental changes caused by human activities: the greenhouse effect and climate change, the mass extinction of species and loss of biological diversity, the worldwide destruction of forests and habitat, the diffusion of persistent organic pollutants, the spread of desertification and land erosion, the pollution of oceans and coastal waters, and the growing pressures on fresh water.90005 90008 These new environmental issues share several common features. They are global in scope, transcending national boundaries and affecting all, or substantial portions of, the world s population. They are slow in developing and long-term in their consequences; they may be irreversible over generations, or even forever, once their impacts become entrenched. Addressing these threats requires an unprecedented degree of international cooperation, involving governments, intergovernmental bodies, the private sector, and, indeed, all of society.And, significantly, the problems are characterized by considerable scientific uncertainties concerning their causes, impacts, feedbacks, and the interrelationships among complex natural and social parameters. 90005 90008 It is, therefore, fair to say that the scientific community bears, in this new century, a special responsibility both to identify and assess risks, and to devise solutions to complex and often interrelated threats to the planet s natural cycles a responsibility upon which the future of human welfare may well depend.At the same time, political and economic decision makers have a concomitant responsibility to take heed of the messages of science, as well as to encourage scientific curiosity and provide adequate research funding. 90005 90008 From this perspective of the indispensable future interaction between science and policy, I would like to analyze the experience of the most successful global environmental agreement to date, the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer — a treaty that has been characterized by the heads of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) «as one of the great international achievements of the century.»[1] 90005 90008 Given the threats to life on Earth that have been averted through this landmark treaty, few would challenge their statement as hyperbole. Ozone, whose existence was unknown until 1839 has been characterized as «the single most important chemically active trace gas in the earth s atmosphere.» [2] Absent the protection of the thin and constantly varying stratospheric ozone layer, life as it currently exists could not have evolved on this planet. 90005 90008 The Montreal Protocol, by phasing out certain chemicals, preserved the integrity of the stratospheric ozone layer that absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun.Depletion of this thin gaseous shield which, if compressed to the planet s surface, would be no thicker than gauze — would have incalculable impacts on human, animal, and plant cells, as well as on climate and ecological systems. Research has indicated that if anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances had continued their rapid accumulation in the upper atmosphere, there would have been a «runaway increase» in skin cancer within decades. [3] 90005 90008 And yet, even while the Montreal Protocol was being negotiated during тисячі дев’ятсот вісімдесят шість and 1987, few observers believed that it would be possible for governments to agree on any strong international controls over the production and consumption of the suspected ozone depleting chemicals.The scientific, economic, technological and political factors underlying the negotiations were staggeringly complex. 90005 90008 The science itself remained speculative, relying upon projections from evolving computer models of imperfectly understood atmospheric processes models that had yielded differing, often contradictory predictions each time that they were refined. Moreover, actual measurements revealed neither the theorized mid-latitude depletion of ozone nor any of the predicted harmful effects.[4] 90005 90008 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and related substances were virtually synonymous with modern standards of living. Indeed, they had seemed to be the perfect chemicals: nonflammable, nontoxic, and noncorrosive and easy and inexpensive to manufacture. During the 1980 s, entrepreneurs found new applications for CFCs in thousands of products and processes across dozens of industries, from electronics, refrigeration, insulation, and plastics, to telecommunications, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and transportation.Powerful political and economic interests thus became aligned to oppose meaningful controls. 90005 90008 Nevertheless, the Montreal Protocol was signed in September 1987 and entered into force in January 1989. Within three years it had been ratified by more than 100 countries and had undergone two major revisions. Unexpectedly, the «smoking gun» of CFC complicity in the Antarctic ozone hole was proven in March 1988, and governments then moved rapidly to strengthen the treaty. The list of controlled substances was increased from 8 to over 90, and the timetables for reduction and phase-out of the dangerous chemicals were significantly strengthened.90005 90008 Within a few more years, a total of nearly 170 nations had joined the protocol. [5] A veritable technological revolution was unleashed that transformed entire industries. The protocol created the first-ever global environmental fund to assist developing nations, and promoted an unprecedented North-South cooperation in research and diffusion of innovative technologies that have now made ozone-depleting substances obsolete. 90005 90008 Even so, it was not inevitable.For decades after their discovery in the 1930 s, no one suspected that these «wonder-chemicals» could cause any harm much less to the critical ozone layer. And, because the CFCs and their cousins ​​have such long atmospheric lifetimes, their deleterious impacts will still be felt for decades, even after new emissions cease. 90005 90008 Unquestionably, science and scientists were the indispensable element in the success of the Montreal Protocol. Without the courage of a handful of curious researchers in the mid-1970 s, the world would have learned too late of the deadly, hidden dangers associated with rapidly expanding use of CFCs.The now legendary hypotheses of Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina at the University of California-Irvine in 1973 initially unleashed a firestorm of criticism and controversy. Together with Paul Crutzen of the Netherlands, they were vindicated by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, but it is worth noting that the first popular book on this subject, published in 1978, was entitled 90002 The Ozone War. 90003 [6] 90005 90008 The complexity of the research effort was noteworthy. Ozone amounts to considerably less than one part per million of the total atmosphere, and 90 percent of it is found above six miles in altitude.The intrinsically unstable ozone molecules were continually being created and destroyed by dimly understood natural forces involving solar radiation and interactions with even more minute quantities of trace gases. To complicate matters, stratospheric ozone concentrations fluctuate considerably on a daily, seasonal, and solar-cyclical basis; there are also sizeable geographical and altitudinal variations. 90005 90008 Amidst all these fluxes, scientists faced a formidable challenge in predicting, and then detecting, the minuscule «signal» of a downturn in stratospheric ozone concentrations, not to mention linking such a development to CFCs.This necessitated the development of ever more sophisticated computer models to simulate the stratospheric interplay among radiative, chemical, and dynamic processes such as wind and temperature — and projecting this for decades or centuries into the future. Intricate miniaturized measuring devices were created and fitted onto aircraft, satellites, and rockets in order to monitor remote gases in quantities as minute as parts per trillion. 90005 90008 To understand the implications of a fading ozone layer, scientists had to venture far beyond atmospheric chemistry: they had to examine our planet as a system of interrelated physical, chemical and biological processes on land, in water, and in the atmosphere processes that are themselves influenced by economic, political, and social forces.The Montreal Protocol became a truly multi- and interdisciplinary effort. Over the years, researching the dangers and solutions involved, not just chemists and physicists, but also meteorologists, oceanographers, biologists, oncologists, economists, soil scientists, toxicologists, agronomists, pharmacologists, electrical, chemical, automotive and materials engineers, botanists, entomologists , and more. 90005 90008 It was not sufficient, moreover, for scientists merely to publish their findings.In order for the theories to be taken seriously and lead to concrete countermeasures, scientists had to interact with diplomatic negotiators and government policy makers. This meant that they occasionally had to leave the familiar atmosphere of their laboratories and assume an unaccustomed shared responsibility for the policy implications of their research. The history of the Montreal Protocol is replete with instances of scientists being called upon to analyze and report on the implications of alternative remedial strategies and policy measures.90005 90008 International scientific consensus was also a crucial element. The development of an accepted common body of data and analysis was the prerequisite for a political solution among nations whose opening negotiating positions were essentially incompatible. In 1984, a remarkable international research cooperation was spearheaded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), together with the WMO, UNEP, the Federal Aviation Administration, the German Ministry for Research and Technology , and the Commission of the European Communities.90005 90008 The Montreal Protocol later institutionalized this concept by establishing international expert panels to periodically assess scientific, technological, economic, and environmental knowledge, and thereby guide the negotiators in the further evolution of the treaty. Over the years hundreds of scientific experts from dozens of countries participated in the drive to learn more about the risks as well as the possible technological solutions. This proved to be a central element in the protocol s success, facilitating agreement by negotiators on additional, ever stronger measures to protect the ozone layer.In effect, the Montreal Protocol was deliberately designed as a dynamic process of narrowing the ranges of uncertainties, rather than a static solution based on the status quo. 90005 90008 The role of scientists in the ozone history provided some important lessons for climate change. During the 1980 s, a few assessments on climate change had been issued under the aegis of WMO and UNEP, developed by a small group of mainly self-selected scientists called the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases.While preparing for the final ozone negotiation in Montreal, I recommended in the summer of 1987 that the US government take an initiative to establish a formal international assessment body on climate change, similar to what we were doing on the ozone issue. My belief was that findings would be more credible if they came from a larger and more diverse group of scientists under intergovernmental auspices. 90005 90008 This proposal attracted some unexpected allies and opponents. Anti-environmentalist officials within the Reagan Administration who only a few short months earlier had tried to replace me as chief US negotiator on ozone — endorsed the idea, hoping that it would give governments more control over the science.In contrast, some environmentalists feared that the process would become distorted by politics. My own feeling, grounded in the ozone experience, was that the vast majority of scientists would be unlikely to allow themselves to be diverted by political or commercial interests, and that governments would sooner be co-opted by the science than vice versa. 90005 90008 The subsequent experience of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, founded in 1988, confirmed my expectation concerning the independence of the participating scientists.However, it should be noted that there is at present a critical difference between the science underlying the negotiations on the ozone layer and the science of climate change. In both cases, the theory was robust. In the case of climate change, there is no dispute that an indefinite accumulation of greenhouse gas concentrations would lead to potentially calamitous alterations in the climate system. But it is not yet possible to predict how far into the future serious effects would occur. There is still considerable uncertainty about the probability, timing, location, and severity of the potential harmful impacts of climate change, which include flood, drought, rising sea levels, the spread of tropical diseases, extinction of species, and increased extreme weather events.In contrast, the probable consequences of ozone layer depletion were strikingly clear for the negotiators: the impacts would be global and fatal, and within a time-span of decades. 90005 90008 Another useful lesson from the Montreal Protocol s success is the importance of public education: interpreting the continually evolving and sometimes confusing data, and communicating the science intelligibly, yet without exaggeration, to the general public and the media. This information flow mobilized public opinion on the potential dangers of a diminishing ozone layer, and thereby fostered political consensus for both policy measures and for funding research.The proponents of strong actions to protect the ozone layer generally did not sensationalize their conclusions merely in order to capture media and public attention. In this way, they maintained their credibility and, importantly, they did not inadvertently provide gratuitous ammunition to those interests that sought to downplay the danger of ozone layer depletion. 90005 90008 Here again, the currently ongoing climate negotiations present a contrast to the Montreal Protocol. Perhaps frustrated by initial public indifference to the indefinite and future dangers of climate change, some advocate organizations, especially in Europe, became tempted to exaggerate the threats and immediacy of climate catastrophe ( «Klimakatastrophe»).The particularly hot summer of 1988 encouraged some groups to foment a sense of panic; popular publications (also in the US) featured cover stories with the Empire State Building or Eiffel Tower partially submerged by raging tides. When the following summers were more normal, public interest waned, even though some activists (not scientists) continued to label every serious hurricane or flood as evidence of climate change. Damage had been done, and not only to credibility. The exaggerations tended to polarize the debate and to harden the position of industries and others who were reluctant to admit the legitimacy of the problem.90005 90008 Information, and particularly sober and accurate information, is thus a critical factor in the linkage between science and policy. The power of the media and the consumer should never be underestimated. Between тисячі дев’ятсот сімдесят шість and 1978, US media interest in the fate of the ozone layer, promoted and nurtured by scientists, legislators, and environmental organizations, stimulated decisions made by millions of individual consumers that led to the collapse of the domestic market for CFC aerosol sprays — — even before there was any government regulation.Later, UNEP and WMO played prominent roles, using workshops, publications, and electronic media, in disseminating relevant information, including the availability of new technologies, to officials, businesses, and the general public throughout the world. 90005 90008 The success of the Montreal Protocol also underscored the necessity of providing adequate funding for all levels of science, from curiosity-driven basic research to applied engineering solutions. While most ozone research funding originally came from governments, for example NASA and NOAA in connection with their space-related research, this was not always the case.In 1985, at a time when the U.K. Government was still opposed to strong controls over CFCs, it ceased financing British scientists in Antarctica who were coming up with disturbing evidence of stratospheric ozone losses. Interestingly, the gap was filled by the US Chemical Manufacturers Association, which, although also not in favor of controls, was nevertheless even more concerned that the uncertainties finally be resolved — one way or the other so that they could plan for the future . 90005 90008 Research investments by the private sector later proved crucial in developing substitutes for the ubiquitous CFC family of chemicals.Unusual public-private partnerships found ozone-friendly solutions for products and processes where it had never been thought possible. In one case, Greenpeace teamed up with a former East German company to develop CFC-free refrigerators, which subsequently were adopted in European markets and then promoted in China and India by the German and Swiss aid programs. The technological revolution had many novel aspects, ranging from cooperation by AT & T and a Florida citrus grower in developing new solvents for electronic circuit boards, to China s indigenous approach to replacing styrofoam with a biodegradable product of grass and straw.Scientists and engineers again played a central role in solving the problems of replacing the harmful chemicals. 90005 90008 * * * 90005 90008 «Politics,» stated Lord Kennet during ozone debates in the House of Lords, «is the art of taking good decisions on insufficient evidence.» [7] The memorable success of the Montreal Protocol stands as a beacon for how science can guide decision makers to overcome conflicting political and commercial interests and reach desirable outcomes. The ozone history demonstrates that, even in the real world of ambiguity and imperfect knowledge, the international community — with the strong assistance of science — is capable of undertaking difficult and foresighted actions for the common good.90005 90008 90005 .90000 Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century 90001 90002 In «Mortality and morbidity in the 21 90003 st 90004 century,» Princeton Professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton follow up on their groundbreaking 2015 paper that revealed a shocking increase in midlife mortality among white non-Hispanic Americans, exploring patterns and contributing factors to the troubling trend. 90005 90002 Case and Deaton find that while midlife mortality rates continue to fall among all education classes in most of the rich world, middle-aged non-Hispanic whites in the U.S. with a high school diploma or less have experienced increasing midlife mortality since the late 1990s. This is due to both rises in the number of «deaths of despair» -death by drugs, alcohol and suicide-and to a slowdown in progress against mortality from heart disease and cancer, the two largest killers in middle age. 90005 90002 The combined effect means that mortality rates of whites with no more than a high school degree, which were around 30 percent lower than mortality rates of blacks in 1999 року, grew to be 30 percent higher than blacks by 2015.90005 90002 90011 90012 90005 90002 Case and Deaton find that deaths of despair are rising in parallel for both men and women without a high school degree, and these deaths of despair have increased in all parts of the country and at every level of urbanization. 90005 90002 The states with the highest mortality rates from drugs, alcohol and suicide, among white non-Hispanics aged 45-54, are geographically scattered. In 2000, the epidemic was centered in the southwest. By the mid-2000s it had spread to Appalachia, Florida, and the west coast.Today, it’s country-wide. 90005 90002 The authors suggest that the increases in deaths of despair are accompanied by a measurable deterioration in economic and social wellbeing, which has become more pronounced for each successive birth cohort. Marriage rates and labor force participation rates fall between successive birth cohorts, while reports of physical pain, and poor health and mental health rise. 90005 90002 Case and Deaton document an accumulation of pain, distress, and social dysfunction in the lives of working class whites that took hold as the blue-collar economic heyday of the early 1970s ended, and continued through the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery .90005 90002 90023 This paper is part of the Spring 2017 edition of the 90024 90023 90024 90023 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 90024 90023, 90024 90023 the leading conference series and journal in economics for timely, cutting-edge research about real-world policy issues. Research findings are presented in a clear and accessible style to maximize their impact on economic understanding and policymaking. The editors are Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow and Northwestern University Economics Professor 90024 90023 Janice Eberly 90024 90023 90024 90023 and 90024 90023 James 90024 90023 90024 90023 Stock 90024 90023, Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow and Harvard University economics professor.Read the rest of the articles 90024 here 90023. 90024 90005 90050 90002 90023 Disclosure: The authors received financial support for this research from the Gallup Organization and through grant R01AG053396 from the National Institute of Aging through the National Bureau of Economic Research. Anne Case is a Council Member with the National Institutes of Health National Research Council, Child Health and Human Development. Angus Deaton is a Senior Scientist with the Gallup Organization. 90024 90005 .